A while ago I found an article entitled Why America Should Be Driving on Natural Gas. The writing is on the wall for oil, and ethanol is currently a loser, so this caught my eye. Additionally, when I was a kid I worked summers for a farmer who ran one of his trucks on propane, and natural gas is a lot less expensive.
Sounds great:
Abundance is perhaps its most appealing advantage. The Potential Gas Committee (PGC) estimated that the U.S. had 1,836 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable natural gas as of 2008, out of a total future natural gas resource base of 2,074 Tcf, which would meet the nation’s natural gas demand for about 100 years, based on the current consumption rate…. [In 2009 the U.S. consumed] 22.8 Tcf of natural gas.
A couple times in the article the author touts that natural gas will last for “100 years.” I guess that should be long enough for a breakthrough to the next source of energy, for those that don’t think we’ll collapse long before then. But there is an important qualifier, it’s based on “current consumption.” Problem number one: clearly if we shifted transportation to natural gas, we’d use it up several times faster that it’s currently being used. So 100 years could be 25.
Then I looked at the numbers. Again, the author talks about “100 years” of fuel, at current consumption rates. But if we have 1,836 Tcf recoverable and use around 22.8 Tcf per year, that’s about 81 years of natural gas, not 100. That’s problem number two.
My guess is electricity (via nuclear reactors) will be the replacement fuel for gasoline, assuming we don’t collapse. Clearly natural gas can’t fulfill anything more than a short gap.
Natural Gas Roundtable Discussion
Why is the “writing on the wall” for oil? Don’t fall for the myth of ‘peak oil’. It’s only peak because politicians (namely ours, not the rest of the world) eitehr don’t have the guts to allow drilling where there is plenty of oil, or, are too indebted to the greenies to allow it. I know oil is finite but we still have many hundred years worth and more is being found every day. It isn’t stopping China, Russia, Cuba, Brazil, Mexico et al from going for it. Just us.
Nuclear power – are you kidding?!?! You think anyone can build a nuke plant in America any more?!?!?!?! With all the regulations and law suits from the greenies (not to mention the outright protests) it’s impossible. Not unless the gov builds them instead of a private utility company and even then this would happen. Do you really want our government in the business of selling you electricity??
As for natural gas it is faaaaaaaar more dangerous than gasoline. I have asked many firemen what they think of thousands of cars and light trucks running the highways on CNG and they are terrified. All those potential bombs on wheels.
The vast majority of easily extracted fuel is gone. There is a lot of fuel left, it’s just increasingly more difficult and therefore more expensive to get/use. Factor in skyrocketing demand from China and India. If we have a fair supply of fuel but gasoline/diesel/heating oil/etc. is $50 or $100 a gallon, our economy will still implode. It’s coming, ready or not.
If we don’t collapse first (huge if), I’m willing to bet that regulations for nuclear reactor construction will eventually be completely revamped, forced by high petroleum costs. The technology has changed dramatically since most of that legislation/regulation. My guess is $10+ gas will cause a lot more social unrest than nuke plant construction.
Do I, “really want our government in the business of selling you electricity??” That’s a straw man based on a couple leaps in logic.
Again, I don’t consider natural gas to be a viable replacement to transportation fuel over even the mid-term, but Google a bit on CNG safety and I think you’ll find it’s generally considered safer than gasoline.
A report came out last week that Saudi Arabia has been over-estimating their output potential as well as how much oil they actually have left. The report stated that their production has reached its peak and will start to decline rapidly over the next 10 years. This led to the prediction that within a few years we could be looking at $200 a barrel for crude oil. That translates to $7 a gallon or more for the American consumer, and potentially a lot more if countries like China continue to keep their gas prices at a fixed rate below what it should cost the Chinese people.
There is a lot more oil to be tapped off our own shores but our politicians are beholden to the extreme environmental lobby who have convinced the American people that it is possible to transition to a non-petroleum based society. The problem is that most Americans don’t know that everything we use is petroleum based: plastics, paints, computers, etc. Oil is used in more than just our cars. Until a viable technology can be found to make the stuff that runs the modern world, we are dependent on oil. And as long as our politicians prohibit companies from tapping our natural resources and prohibit new refinery capacity we will be beholden to foreign powers as well.
Yup nuclear makes a ton of sense, but instead of taking 3 years, it takes 10 years in North America to build one – plus the greenies and capital overruns have politicians terrified of it. Natural gas is the obvious goto solution. Canadian politicians (Ontario where I live in particular) are now eating there words as they rollback the bogus vote-getting green policies of subsidizing wind and solar. They bought votes from economically ignorant masses and implemented a now failed policy to pay as much as 8x the going electricity rates for electricity for those that built and installed wind and or solar. Can you say “d i s a s t e r” – I just did.
Solar ain’t there yet economically.
Wind ain’t there yet economically.
Oil is running out.
Natural gas IS THERE, and it’s dirt cheap and abundant here in NA.
You can buy a natural gas vehicle today in market (Honda NGV and install a fill station in your garage for 5k – and cut your transport fuel costs by more than 50%). Gas stations goose prices dramatically versus what your gas company charges delivered to your home.
Happy travels!
Yea not really sure that natural gas is the way to go either, all I know is that Government is making the problem a hell of a lot worse. Just seen an article this morning how a new mini cooper is being sold in the UK that gets 65 miles a gallon but they can’t bring it here because of all the diesel fuel restrictions
I agree with your point about the “current consumption” fallacy, but even if NG only buys us 25 years, that’s still 25 more years than we have now without it. That will give us 25 years to ramp up electricity production to meet future demand.
With oil prices likely to keep rising, we need an affordable alternative, and NG seems to fit the bill.
I must point out an error in your thinking: You stated that electricity is a fuel – it is not.
Coal, oil, natural gas. and wood are fuels. Alcohol is a fuel. I suppose Uranium and the like are a type of fuel.
Electricity is a form of energy that is easily distributed, but it isn’t a fuel. There are no electricity mines. (Although I suppose you COULD call a bunch of solar electric panels a “farm”.)
I suppose electric cars could be a part of the solution – but until somebody invents a better battery, they are limited to short trips.
Gasoline is such a GOOD fuel – it is compact, lightweight, and energy dense. It is also a mature technology that we know how to move from refinery to point of sale.
Natural gas has one characteristic that is interesting: Engines can last for two hundred thousand miles running CNG.
Fuel is an energy source for engines, motors, whatever else. Batteries are charged (i.e. filled) with electricity and then used to power cars, that is using electricity as a fuel. Most energy is combustible, but that is not a requirement, so let’s not try to play sharpshooter with selective definitions.
Gasoline is great, except that it’s cost will only go up. As for 200k miles on CNG, my brother’s truck is approaching 250k miles on gasoline. My guess is CNG can go even further.
The petroleum crisis started 35 years ago. In that time in Brasil we started a program named PRO-ALCOOL. Today 80% of our cars use fuel from sugarcane, besides sugarcane we have other alternative fuels. This was our answer for those who are owner the oil.
Gasoline is NOT a “GOOD” long term fuel. The storage of gasoline for even short periods, months, not years, requires several additives which gives you a diluted fuel. This will not benefit vehicles, as the lower octane rating reduces power and adds to carbon build up in the engine.
As for the longevity of engines; I’ve had 3 pick ups that all had over 250k when I sold them. 2 were Ford F150 with a 302 cid engines and 1 was a Dodge 1500 with the 360 cid engine. They all ran gasoline and usually the 87 octane. Maintenance and driving style will determine more of an engine’s longevity than anything else. Diesel engines normally will handle over a million miles.